General Election 2024: results overview

The General Election is over. The Labour Party under Keir Starmer has emerged victorious and will form the next government. Labour has won one of the largest majorities in history. The scale of their success is not as big as some pollsters predicted, and the Conservatives do not appear to be politically extinct, but the Labour Party now has a strong mandate to govern. 

Labour’s parliamentary majority will give it significant power to enact its programme for government. With the win confirmed, Starmer will now look to form his government, appoint ministers and get to work. He will recognise that despite the large-scale victory, some of the underlying polling numbers reflect a volatile electorate that will reflect challenges on the horizon for the government he will lead. 

This appears to have been the ‘Rejection Election’ – where the collapse in the Conservative vote allowed Labour a landslide, rather than a huge desire for change in the country. How the result was achieved, from a business perspective though, is immaterial.

Topline analysis

There are three points to note:

1. Predictability has arrived. Keir Starmer has the personal mandate, and the political personnel required to push through his legislative agenda with ease. We have entered a period of predictability in British politics where business can expect the government to do precisely what it has promised to do. Since 2016, this has not been something that could be taken for granted, even with so-called ‘workable’ Conservative majorities for the last eight years.
2. A full legislative agenda is coming. For the first time since circa 2015/2016 there will be a full legislative agenda (25+ Bills of substance). The manifesto will be implemented at speed as well as anticipated u-turns (potentially broader windfall taxes and to corporation tax). Understanding where your businesses priorities intersect with the five missions of this new government, and critically how much of a priority the Labour party places on your business priorities, is essential. For some businesses, alterations to their operating environment are less than 100 days away.
3. ‘Politics’ is still important. With such a significant majority, in usual times we might expect the impact of political pressure to reduce. Given the new makeup of Parliament (with a Lib Dem surge, Nigel Farage in for the first time, the Greens), pressure group politics is here. Whilst that may not lead to changes in legislation, it does provide fertile ground for new advocates or detractors to an organisations’ position to be more influential than at first thought.

Overview of results

Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. After 14 years of Conservative government, Rishi Sunak has been swept away and replaced by the Labour Party. Starmer has achieved a majority akin to Tony Blair in 1997 – which ushered in a generation of Labour government. This is a remarkable result considering the last election was a low point for Labour. In contrast, the Conservative Party has achieved its worst result in over 100 years. Beset by challenges throughout the campaign they have lost votes and seats to Labour, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens. 

The scale of the Conservative defeat and the upsets that Labour has suffered reflect that voters are not entirely happy with the major parties. It has led to a highly political House of Commons, with more smaller parties, independents and radical politicians who will create challenges for Labour even with their large majority. 

The results at this stage, with 2 seats to declare, are:

Labour	412	+211
Conservatives	121	-250
Liberal Democrats	71	+63
Reform UK	4	+4
SNP	9	-38
Greens	4	+3
Other	27

Key moments so far

The scale of the Conservative defeat and gains by other parties has meant that election night threw up significant results. Some of the key outcomes including:

• Labour won in traditionally safe Conservative seats including Rushcliffe, South West Norfolk, Lichfield and Cannock Chase.
• 11 Senior Conservative Ministers including Education Secretary Gillian Keegan (majority in 2019 of 21,000), Justice Secretary Alex Chalk (1,000), Defence Secretary Grant Shapps (11,000) and Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan (11,000) were unseated.
• Reform UK racked up strong results across the UK, putting them second to the Labour Party in many seats and contributing to the poor results for the Conservatives. Ultimately, they were successful in Clacton, Ashfield, Boston and Skegness and Great Yarmouth.
• The Liberal Democrats have scored a series of incredible results to have their best General Election ever. The party looks set to win 70 seats, winning previously safe Conservative constituencies including Witney and North East Hampshire.
• The Scottish National Party faced a similar collapse to the Conservatives, with 38 losses to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
• Despite the positive evening for Labour, there have been shocks. The Shadow Culture Secretary and Shadow Paymaster General lost their seats to the Greens and Independent candidates respectively. 

What comes next?

The remainder of the election is largely a formality. Whilst it will inform the final tally, it will not define who the next government is. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer will begin the work of forming a government. 

Around lunchtime, Starmer arrived at Number 10 Downing Street and gave a speech outside of the building in his first opportunity to speak to the UK as Prime Minister. Once Starmer enters the building and receives his initial briefings as Prime Minister, he will begin forming a government. In practice, many of his current Shadow Cabinet are expected to be appointed to his first Cabinet. Notably, Starmer will need to identify and appoint a new Culture Secretary following Thangam Debbonaire’s loss to the Green Party in Bristol Central.

While Starmer’s Cabinet has been appointed, junior ministers will be appointed throughout today and into early next week. Once this is complete, Departments will turn to preparing for the Labour Government’s first King’s Speech scheduled for 17th July. Labour will be keen to show it is ‘rolling up its sleeves’ and getting to work. As such, there will be a strong legislative agenda that seeks to show the party recognises the scale of the challenge in front of it and is moving to act. Expect consultations, legislation, and green / white papers to come fast in the priority areas set out in the manifesto. 

Overall, though, whilst there are big political questions that will need to be answered by Starmer, the size of the majority means that there will be a more stable environment driven by long-term priorities of Labour and the ambitions of Ministers.

This 2024 General Election digest was compiled and supplied to NFP by our public relations partners at Burson Global.